V K Sasikala, the infamous aide of former ADMK Supremo Jayalalithaa is completing her jail term. Political experts believe her entry will cause significant disruptions in Tamil Nadu politics. She was Jayalalithaa’s master strategist and known for all the infamous reasons.
Well, her release would mean her entry into Tamil Nadu politics and a victory would mean her disastrous supremacy. Also, the existing leadership will go for a toss. But she is someone who holds the key to AIADMK’s vote bank i.e., Thevar.
On the other hand, we have M K Azhagiri, the eldest son of former DMK Supremo Karunanidhi. Like Sasikala, even he was known for all the wrong reasons. Yet, he ensured DMK victory in some of the key Southern districts. Now, his rivalry with Stalin is a trend and his anti-Stalin moves will eventually cause DMK’s defeat.
These two are major disruptors and even a spark from their end would not only reduce the victory of the two major parties in Tamil Nadu. But, their decisions would also decimate them. Here are some possible outcomes from these two disruptors.
Thevar Vote Bank, AMMK & Southern Districts
The districts of Ramanathapuram, Sivaganagai, Madurai and some in Cauvery delta regions have a sizable Thevar population. In 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2016 assembly elections, ADMK won a sizable number of seats from these districts. Thanks to Sasikala’s influence in the Thevar community. In 2019 general elections, AIADMK’s vote share stood at 18.48 percent and that’s because of AMMK owned by Sasikala’s brother TTV Dinakaran. His party AMMK garnered 8.46 percent. Even though, AMMK failed to win a single seat, it is important to note that their absence would have sealed AIADMK’s thevar vote bank in some of these key districts.
Without Sasikala’s word, there is a big possibility that winning a larger mandate might be difficult for the ruling AIADMK. The only option AIADMK and AMMK have now is to be in the same alliance. Well, if Sasikala forcibly enters AIADMK headquarters and takes control, no one can do anything. The cadres will naturally stick to the mightiest. Then, the ruling OPS-EPS combine along with their supporters might contest in their own capacity and garner a null. But both ways, a DMK debacle is possible.
Southern Districts, Cadre Apathy & Charisma
Until 2016 elections, if the majority had to choose a charismatic leader in Tamil Nadu, large number of them would pinpoint Jayalalithaa. Well, Karunanidhi is a leader with a large follower base too. But the godly image was only meant for Jayalalithaa after MGR in Tamil Nadu. But, if you had ever known Azhagiri- the leader, then you have different thoughts. Or if you ever had a chance to listen to his recent speech then you know the natural leader in him.
In 2006, he was responsible for DMK’s victory in Madurai which is an AIADMK fortress. The margins were pretty big and he meant a lot to DMK by then. According to his recent speech, Karunanidhi recognized his efforts and it was Stalin who was concerned about his growth within the party lines.
In the current scenario, many senior DMK leaders raised concern over the involvement of IPAC and Prashant Kishore. Added to this, involvement of Udayanidhi Stalin and sons/daughters of other key leaders are also causing apathy among some seniors in DMK who rose to fame with hard work within the party lines.
In the meantime, Azhagiri has appealed to his supporters to accept any decision that he takes. Well, throughout his speech, one thing is clear. He doesn’t want Stalin and his kitchen cabinets ruling DMK currently. Therefore, his decision could be taking a large faction of DMK workers in a breakaway faction or he only criticizing the DMK under Stalin’s leadership.
Southern Districts – The Deciding Factor?
There is one common ground for both these disruptors i.e., they hold the key to Southern districts. Therefore, we can hypothetically say that Southern Districts decide who rules Tamil Nadu. The last week of January 2021 is going to seal the fate of the two major parties in Tamil Nadu as Sasikala’s release and Azhagiri’s political decision will make waves.
Well, we have other smaller players too now who claim to be disruptors, but they are actually not. Wondering who they are, wait for our next blog.