Aravind SundaramTamil Nadu has 234 constituencies and of that very few have decided the fate of the elections. For example, Ohio is considered as the swing state and the winning President always won Ohio in the history of the elections in United States of America. Similarly, Tamil Nadu has nearly 20 assembly constituencies which is considered as the bellwether constituencies.
In 2016, when the perception gave an edge to the DMK combine, these constituencies chose the incumbent. Moreover, the seats which we have chosen is widely spread across the ADMK as well as the DMK bastions. Therefore, I personally believe that these seats will pin point the winning party.
Vedasandur
Poll Strategists from both the ADMK and DMK camps are keenly watching the developments in this constituency. While the DMK led coalition managed to put a strong show in the campaign trails, people of this constituency chose to the incumbent ADMK government. Except the first election i.e., 1952 where Communist Party of India won, the trends in the upcoming elections pretty well pin pointed victory to the winning alliance. In 1967, CPI(M) contesting as a DMK ally won this seat. Then from 1977, 1980 and 1984 ADMK managed to hold it back.
Well, winning thrice doesn’t mean it is an ADMK bastion. In the key elections where DMK won i.e., 1989, 1996 and 2006, either DMK or its ally Congress managed to win this seat. Similarly, in 2011 and 2016 ADMK managed to retain this. The 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections is considered to be confusing by poll strategist and the one who takes the initial lead in this seat will emerge victorious.
Ramanathapuram
A place in Tamil Nadu which has mixed population of Hindus and Muslims. Infact, in some places muslims are considered as the deciding factor. Moreover, former APJ Abdul Kalam’s home ground. In the elections of 1977, 1980, 1984 under the leadership of MGR, ADMK managed to hold it back. But the trend reverse when DMK won in 1989 and 1996 as well as 2006 (Congress won which was then an alliance partner of DMK).
Subsequently, in 2011, Manithaneya Makkal Katchi joined the ADMK led alliance and won this seat. Followed by that in 2016 ADMK itself managed to win this. Like Vedasandur, the initial trends here might be sealing the fate of the overall election results.
Modakkurichi
Erode district is an ADMK stronghold. Yet, voters in Modakkurichi have chosen the winning party/alliance quite carefully. And that very well reflected since 1952 and till now. When DMK won in 1967 and 1971, it was sealed as a DMK stronghold. But MGR’s entry with ADMK turned the table around and till 1984 it was dubbed to be an ADMK stronghold.
But 1989, 1996 and 2006, the people began signalling the right signs and declared that they carefully choose the winning party/alliance. Now, C K Saraswathi is contesting here on a BJP ticket. Let us see if this seat will signal a lotus bloom in Tamil Nadu.
Sholinghur
A small town which is famous for its hillock temple in Vellore District. It is hardly a 2 hour drive from Chennai. Most importantly, it falls under the Arakkonam Lok Sabha constituency. Yes, all the dynamics could say it is a DMK bastion. But, the historical data have proved them wrong completely. And the elections in 1977, 1980 and 1984 as well as 2011, 2016 and the recent 2019 by-election project a different perception of the voters here.
As mentioned previously, the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections is waveless and is more of a cat-in-a-wall situation. Some political analysts also say that the perception could change when the voters are entering the polling booth. Let us wait and watch if ADMK is winning by breaking the anti-incumbency myth or if DMK stands a chance to emerge victorious after a long time.
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Aravind Sundaram
