Aravind SundaramPolitical equations have always been interesting when it comes to Tamil Nadu politics. Or we should say that’s the interesting factor in the whole political scenario in the state. In these few months, we have seen political developments in the state did cause some shocking waves. Right from Rajinikanth’s entry and exit to Azhagiri’s anti-Stalin stance, we saw it all coming.
Moreover, alliance partners did cause some trouble to the two major parties. PMK seeking reservation for Vanniyar, VCK and MDMK seeking more seats and what not. While, we all came to a conclusion that this alliance might break, we saw a U-turn. These smaller parties still claim their allegiance to the larger factions.
But as the poll date comes closer, the alliances too are all set to see a major shift in the coming days. While the opinion polls published in the recent days favour the DMK camp, the below equations could make us stumble upon the entire scenario yet again. Here are some political equations which can make or break in the coming days.
PMK in DMK Alliance?
Post Rajinikanth’s withdrawal from politics, DMDK, BJP and other alliance partners claimed they still exist in the alliance. They all claim that they accept whatever the major partner decides. Yet, nothing significant is heard from PMK. Well, political analysts say PMK could easily jump to the DMK camp, but the Mango clan is still discreet about its plans ahead.
Ministers from the ruling party have been visiting the supremo back and forth to convince them to stay in the alliance. But their final decision might be significant. The party switching alliances at this juncture would make a lot of difference to both the camps.
DMK Alliance minus Congress?
Since 2004 general elections, DMK and Congress contested together. Well, except the 2014 general elections, both the parties remained together. In 2019, Congress, Communist, VCK, MDMK performed phenomenally. While so far, we see the alliance stays intact, a lot of infighting is happening.
Reportedly, DMK was considering to allot 15 seats to Congress owing to their performance in Bihar elections 2020. While top Congress leaders agree to the same in public, some senior leaders are voicing their concerns. And the rift is wide open in the neighboring Puducherry where DMK is claiming the throne this time. Also, Rahul Gandhi’s recent campaigns are solo and his speeches are far more Modi criticisms than the facts supporting DMK to form a government.
Owaisi Front with Kamal Hassan, VCK & MDMK?
MDMK is raising concerns over seat allotment and contesting in DMK’s symbol. Well, VCK is no different. On the other hand, Kamal Hassan is widely campaigning across the state. In the meantime, the entry of Owaisi’s AIMIM is a spoiler to the anti-incumbency factor. If MDMK and VCK walk out of DMK camp, they are sure to identify a place in any liberally ideological alliance.
And the vote bank these parties target on a standalone basis is more or less the same. Also, this vote bank favours DMK and smaller minority allies. If they make a third front, then DMK’s victory or even crossing the double digit mark is questionable. Well, these are my understanding of the ground reality and that’s how the political equations prevailed all these years.
Well, the road ahead is getting more interesting day after day. What will happen at the end is something we will have to wait and watch. 29 January is the time when Azhagiri is expected to announce his political stance. Also, 31 January is when PMK decides whom to contest with. Hence, the end of the month will be the beginning of a heated up political climate in the state or should we say political equation.
Keep watching this space for more such interesting updates.
Aravind Sundaram
