Uttar Pradesh assembly elections are more like the quarter-finals for 2024 Parliamentary Elections. Why? This is one state which is voting for the BJP just for the face of Narendra Modi. Well, also this is a game of testing for Yogi Adityanath and how consistently he can manage to retain power.
Also, we will look at the caste dominance in each of these constituencies.
Former BJP stalwart Kalyan Singh won this seat in the 1993 Assembly Elections with just a margin of 693 votes. Hence this is the best example of how the constituency is carefully choosing the ruling party. It has a strong Rajput as well as Yadav population and a good Dalit population too. Hence any signs of anti-incumbency will first reflect in this constituency. Being at the western part of Uttar Pradesh, this time the impact of the protest taken forward by Rakesh Tikait too might reflect here.
The battleground of Mahabharat is the battleground of Uttar Pradesh too. Also, it is falling under Meerut District in Western UP that has more than 30 to 40 percent of the Muslim population. Even then, the ruling party has been chosen carefully. In 1991 and 1993, elections were not at all held in this constituency. Any wave of anti-incumbency might reflect here as a significant number of folks are keen on voting against the saffron clan.
Deoband comes under the Saharanpur district and is in news for a while. Again, another constituency from Western UP, which could witness the effects of the so-called farm protests. Once upon a time, it was a Congress stronghold.
Then became a BJP fortress in the 1990s, but carefully chose the winning party/alliance since then. Nearly 42 percent of the Muslim population could be a sign of the Samajwadi Party/Congress taking the mantle ahead. But, in 2017, the BJP candidate won with a margin of 30,000 votes.
Overall, we have seen constituencies in Western Uttar Pradesh and that is because this region is going to be the swing factor. With the absence of Ajit Singh, the Jat vote bank might swing towards BJP or towards Samajwadi Party. As the elections near, we will realize the impact gradually. So, let us wait and watch.
We earlier wrote a list of bellwether constituencies for Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2021. Most of them came true, except for Modakkurichi. Similarly, we are presenting the bellwether constituencies for Uttar Pradesh.