Joseph Vijay and his party TVK along with INC, VCK and the two communist parties have formed the next government in Tamil Nadu. Emergence of TVK and Vijay as the next political superstar of Tamil Nadu have faltered key trends in some of the key bellwether constituencies that never failed to predict trends accurately. On the other hand, some of the other constituencies, which lost its bellwether status proved to be more accurate than before in all sense.

In this blog, we see a comparison on bellwether constituencies, which failed to signal and the ones that got it right in the recently concluded assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.

Modakurichi (Got it Right)

Dr C K Saraswathi of BJP won this seat in 2021 with a slender margin of 200 votes against Subbulakshmi Jagatheesan of DMK. While based on trends in 2021, the constituency actually faltered. However, TVK’s D Sanmugam won this seat with a margin of 2430 votes. In a matter of 1 or 2 per cent, TVK candidate won.

Vedasandur (Got it Wrong)

Any constituency can go the wrong, but Vedansandur is always accurate. This is what every psephologist and political gurus would claim. Ironically, this time, Vedasandur went the DMK way. T Saminathan won with a margin of 10,000 votes. Surprisingly, TVK is just placed third, while the fight was between AIADMK and DMK (with the former in second place). In one of our previous blogs published in 2021, we predicted that except the initial 1952 elections, Vedasandur always predicted the winning party/alliance. However, the trend has faltered now.

Madurai Central (Got it Right)

Until 2016, Madurai Central enjoyed the status of Vedasandur too. In 1967, it signaled a DMK wave. And in 1977, it signaled an MGR wave. In 1980, despite MGR sharing the seat with an independent candidate, he happened to win. Similarly, 1989, 1996 and 2001 too the constituency accurately chose the winning party/alliance. However, with the entry of PTR (Dr. Palanivel Thiagarajan of DMK in 2016), the seat lost its bellwether status.

While political pundits predicted a marginal win or a neck-to-neck fight between PTR and Sundar C (contesting on AIADMK symbol), the signal went the other way. TVK’s Madhar Badhurudeen won with a margin of 19,000 votes. Yet, the demographics of this constituency is questionable as the winner represents the minority community signaling a large minority support wave. It is notable that a large amount of minority population happens to be the deciding factor.

Ramanathapuram (Got it Wrong)

If it was a minority vote shift towards TVK, then the analysis can be contested with the results of Ramanathapuram. Even though slender, DMK managed to win this seat with a margin of 12,000 votes. Well, the slender margin can also be considered a signal sometimes like how Dr C K Saraswathi of BJP won in Modakurichi. That sheer accurateness right from 1967 to 2021 faltered with a thin margin of votes.

Srivaikuntam (Got it Right)

One of the closely watched constituencies in Thoothukudi (Tuticorin) district has always been a bellwether seat. S P Shanmuganathan of AIADMK has been the strongman for a while until 2016. Oorvasi Amrithraj of Congress (INC) as part of the DMK alliance broke the record in 2021. Nevertheless, AIADMK’s strong man turn towards the DMK camp and still lost to TVK’s V G Saravanan with a slender margin of 1186 votes. Hence, a clear signal pointing the overall trend.

In conclusion

TVK’s victory has jolted not only the political parties, but also psephologists who predicted victory of the two dravidian parties. However, the tough fight given by DMK and AIADMK also signals that the dravidian majors are not dead yet. On the other hand, it also proves that an alliance between AIADMK and BJP is detrimental for both.

Things get more interesting in the 2029 lok sabha elections as Congress, Communist, VCK and IUML are in the TVK camp. Will DMK manage to pull them back? Is AIADMK heading towards a split? Is BJP ready to care about Tamil Nadu more than before? Let us wait and see.