The devil is in the detail. This saying is more valid when we analyse election data as psephologists look closely into the booth level data. They compare population, demographics, ethnic distribution, and others with the actual election results. And that says why they won, how they won etc. On that note, we choose one of the bellwether constituencies that faltered – Ramanathapuram.

Read our blog on bellwether constituencies

Traditionally, it has been a playground for electoral politics as it swings towards the winner. According to census data, hindus in this constituency are 76 per cent followed by muslims – 19 per cent and christians – 3 per cent. And of the 76 per cent hindus, 60 per cent represent the thevar (mukkulathor) community.

In 2026 assembly elections, DMK’s Katharbatcha Muthuramalingam won with a margin of 12,111 votes against the TVK candidate who came second with nearly 76,000 votes followed by BJP at a distant third with around 57,000 votes. Here are trends observed across 399 polling stations in this constituency.

Runner-up leads in more polling stations than the winner

Shahul Hameed, the candidate for TVK was leading in 142 polling stations as against the winning DMK candidate. This means even a large number of muslims did cast their vote to TVK. And the DMK candidate won in only 110 polling stations winning with a miniscule margin. On the other hand, the BJP candidate was seen leading in only 26 polling stations and yet garnered most votes from the hindu communities namely mukkulathor, and yadava.

Seeman’s NTK is still a force in some pockets

Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) garnered 8 per cent vote bank in 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections and was the major reason why ADMK alliance lost. Even though NTK’s presence was not felt a lot this time, they still happened to garner 10,000 votes that was enough to curb the chances of the ADMK alliance partner.

While 10,000 might still sound like a miniscule number, a deeper look tells a different story. In a few booths, either DMK or TVK had the edge over the BJP candidate who would have rather finished first. With NTK’s presence the BJP candidate finished second and eventually lost the opportunity to score enough.

BJP lacks grassroot presence in several booths

2024 Indian general elections had some good news for BJP in Tamil Nadu. Despite not winning anything, they managed to garner 11 per cent vote share, which was remarkable for the perception set against them. In several booths, the BJP candidate has either received a single vote or drew a blank. This means that the party has no grassroot presence in several booths and even their alliance with ADMK did not materialise.

In conclusion

If the number of polling stations are considered then TVK eventually won enough in one of the bellwether constituencies. And the reason for DMK candidate’s victory could also be attributed to his influence. Secondly, BJP still has the opportunity to consolidate hindu vote bank in one of the nationally prominent assembly as well as lok sabha constituencies. However, it is subjective to their efforts.